2014 World Cup group stage final game scenarios

Here I’ll run through what each team in the 2014 World Cup needs to do in their final group game (and possibly needs other teams to do) to qualify for the 2nd round. By presenting tables and each team’s individual scenario, hopefully it’ll be clear.

 

Group A sees three teams still able to qualify (Brazil, Croatia and Mexico), while Cameroon are already eliminated.

MEX win

MEX/CRO draw

CRO win

BRA win

BRA, MEX (GD)

1. BRA 2. MEX

1. BRA 2. CRO

BRA/CMR draw

1. MEX 2. BRA

1. BRA 2. MEX

1. CRO 2. BRA

CMR win

1. MEX 2. BRA

1. MEX 2. CRO

1. CRO 2. BRA/MEX (GD)

Brazil: Will qualify with a win or draw. Can still qualify with a loss if Mexico beat Croatia, or if Croatia beat Mexico and Brazil end up with a better goal difference than Mexico (if tied on that it will go to goals scored, and if also tied on that then there will be a drawing of lots).
Mexico: Will qualify with a win or draw. Can still qualify with a loss, but only if Cameroon beat Brazil and Mexico end up with a better goal difference than Brazil (if tied on that it will go to goals scored, and if also tied on that then there will be a drawing of lots).
Croatia: Will qualify with a win. Can qualify with a draw, but only if if Cameroon beat Brazil. Cannot qualify with a loss.

 

Group B is simple: Spain and Australia are already eliminated and will contest a dead rubber. Netherlands and Chile are through with their game determining the group winners, which will be Netherlands if they win or it’s a draw, otherwise it’ll be Chile.

 

Group C has Colombia already through, with any one of Côte d’Ivoire, Japan or Greece joining them.

COL win

COL/JPN draw

JPN win

CIV win

1. COL 2. CIV

1. COL 2. CIV

COL, CIV (GD)

CIV/GRE draw

1. COL 2. CIV

1. COL 2. CIV

1. COL 2. CIV/JAP (GD)

GRE win

1. COL 2. GRE

1. COL 2. GRE

1. COL 2. GRE/JAP (GD)

Colombia: Already through.
Côte d’Ivoire: Will qualify with a win. Would qualify with a draw unless Japan beat Colombia and have a better goal difference (if tied on that it will be decided on goals scored, if also tied on that then Côte d’Ivoire qualify since they beat Japan). Cannot qualify with a loss.
Greece: Would qualify with a win unless Japan beat Colombia and have a better goal difference (if tied on that it will be decided on goals scored, if also tied on that then there will be a drawing of lots). Cannot qualify with a loss or draw.
Japan: Can qualify with a win provided Côte d’Ivoire don’t win and Japan have a better goal difference than Côte d’Ivoire if Côte d’Ivoire and Greece draw, or than Greece if Greece win (a goal difference and goals scored tie yields a drawing of lots only in the latter case, in the former case Côte d’Ivoire would qualify). Cannot qualify with a loss or draw.

 

Group D has Costa Rica (!) already qualified, while England are out (on the bright side, England fans, a win against Costa Rica means they come home from Brazil as Unofficial Football World Champions). The other qualification place is between Italy and Uruguay.

ITA win

ITA/URU draw

URU win

CRC win

1. CRC 2. ITA

1. CRC 2. ITA

1. CRC 2. URU

CRC/ENG draw

1. CRC 2. ITA

1. CRC 2. ITA

1. CRC 2. URU

ENG win

CRC, ITA (GD)

1. CRC 2. ITA

CRC, URU (GD)

Costa Rica: Are already through and will do so as group winners, unless they are beaten by England and either Uruguay or Italy wins with a better goal difference (if in this scenario they are tied on goal difference and goals scored, Costa Rica finish top having beaten Uruguay and Italy).
Italy: Will qualify with a win or a draw (with a better goal difference than Uruguay). Cannot qualify with a loss.
Uruguay: Will only qualify with a win. Cannot qualify with a draw or loss.

 

Group E has none of its teams (France, Ecuador, Switzerland and Honduras) through or out yet.

FRA win

FRA/ECU draw

ECU win

SUI win

1. FRA 2. SUI

1. FRA 2. SUI

FRA/SUI/ECU (GD)

SUI/HON draw

1. FRA 2. SUI

1. FRA 2. ECU

FRA, ECU (GD)

HON win

1. FRA 2. SUI/HON/ECU (GD)

1. FRA 2. ECU

FRA, ECU (GD)

France: Will qualify with a win or a draw. Would still qualify with a loss unless Switzerland win and they and Ecuador both have better goal differences (highly unlikely given France’s is currently +6 versus 0 and -2 for Ecuador and Switzerland, respectively).
Ecuador: Would qualify with a win unless Switzerland beat Honduras and Switzerland and France end up with better goal differences (the tie-breaker after goal difference and goals scored in this scenario will be goal difference then goals scored in the games between these three teams). Would qualify with a draw unless Switzerland win. Can only qualify with a loss if Honduras beat Switzerland and Ecuador have a better goal difference etc than Switzerland and Honduras.
Switzerland: Would qualify with a win unless Ecuador beat France and both end up with better goal differences etc. Can qualify with a draw only if France beat Ecuador. Can only qualify with a loss if France beat Ecuador and Switzerland have a better goal difference etc than Ecuador and Honduras.
Honduras: Can only qualify if they beat Switzerland and France beat Ecuador and Honduras have a better goal difference etc than Switzerland and Honduras. A draw or loss means elimination.

 

Group F has Argentina already through and Bosnia & Herzegovina already out. The other second round spot will be Iran or Nigeria.

ARG win

ARG/NGA draw

NGA win

IRN win

1. ARG 2. NGA/IRN (GD)

1. ARG 2. NGA

1. NGA 2. ARG

IRN/BIH draw

1. ARG 2. NGA

1. ARG 2. NGA

1. NGA 2. ARG

BIH win

1. NGA 2. ARG

1. NGA 2. ARG

1. NGA 2. ARG

Argentina: Are already through (and will do so as top unless they lose to Nigeria).
Nigeria: Will qualify with either a win or a draw against Argentina. If they lose to Argentina then they will need Iran to not win, otherwise they need to hope they lose to Argentina by only one goal and Iran win by only won goal but Nigeria score at least as many goals as Iran do against Bosnia & Herzegovina (if Nigeria were to score one fewer than Iran then we would have a drawing of lots).
Iran: Can only qualify if they win and Nigeria lose: if one of these is by at least two goals then Iran would qualify with a better goal difference, otherwise it would go to goals scored (Iran through if they score more than Nigeria do against Argentina) then a drawing of lots. Cannot qualify with a draw or a loss.

 

Group G has all four teams (Germany, USA, Ghana and Portugal) able to qualify.

GER win

GER/USA draw

USA win

GHA win

1. GER 2. GHA/USA (GD)

1. GER 2. USA

1. USA 2. GER/GHA (GD)

GHA/POR draw

1. GER 2. USA

1. GER 2. USA

1. GER 2. USA

POR win

1. GER 2. USA/POR (GD)

1. GER 2. USA

1. USA 2. GER/POR (GD)

Germany: Will qualify with a win or draw. Can qualify with a loss if Ghana and Portugal draw, or if they have better goal difference etc than the winner of that game.
USA: Will qualify with a win or draw. Can qualify with a loss if Ghana and Portugal draw, or if they have better goal difference etc than the winner of that game.
Ghana: Can qualify if they beat Portugal and have a better goal difference etc than a losing team in the Germany-USA game. Cannot qualify with a draw or loss.
Portugal: Can qualify if they beat Ghana and have a better goal difference etc than a losing team in the Germany-USA game. Cannot qualify with a draw or loss.

 

Group H has Belgium already through. The other spot is up for grabs between Algeria, Russia and South Korea.

BEL win

BEL/KOR draw

KOR win

ALG win

1. BEL 2. ALG

1. BEL 2. ALG

1. ALG 2. BEL

ALG/RUS draw

1. BEL 2. ALG

1. BEL 2. ALG

1. BEL 2. ALG/KOR (GD)

RUS win

1. BEL 2. RUS

1. BEL 2. RUS

1. BEL 2. RUS/KOR (GD)

Belgium: Are already through (and will do so as top unless they lose to South Korea and Algeria beat Russia).
Algeria: Will qualify with a win. Would qualify with a draw unless South Korea beat Belgium and by more than 3 goals, or by 3 goals and score 3 more goals more than Algeria do against Russia. Cannot qualify with a loss.
Russia: Can qualify with a win except if South Korea beat Belgium by two more goals than Russia beat Algeria, or by one more goal and Russia score 2 fewer than South Korea (a goals scored tie would result in a drawing of lots). Cannot qualify with a draw or loss.
South Korea: Can qualify with a win if Algeria don’t win. Need to beat Russia on goal difference etc if Russia win or Algeria if it’s a draw, in the ways described above. Cannot qualify with a draw or loss.

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